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Will bitcoin hit $1 million by 2030?
No matter what Satoshi intended, bitcoin has come to be more or less treated as digital gold by holders and industry players alike. But that title is under pressure this cycle, says Muneeb Ali, founder of Stacks and a four-cycle crypto markets veteran.
“Bitcoin has established itself as digital gold,” Ali acknowledges. So, there should be a strong correlation between bitcoin and gold’s price movements. But in this most recent cycle, that wasn’t the case, something Ali thinks is “puzzling.”
In fact, he thinks that as bitcoin continues to mature, it will likely decouple from other trends, too. “The correlation was higher last cycle. This cycle, even if Bitcoin is not correlated in the wrong way, let's say the stock market is going up and Bitcoin is not going up. In some ways it's a good sign.”
Instead, bitcoin has been traded more like high-risk equity, which from a fundamentals perspective doesn’t make a ton of sense.
This is a result of the industry, and its userbase, slowly maturing. “There are new types of players that are entering,” Ali said. “I think as the market matures more and more, it will arc toward the fundamentals to what Bitcoin fundamentally is. “Other trading firms will start doing what the data says, not what the fundamentals are saying.”
Despite the changes, Ali remains firmly bullish that bitcoin will hit the million-dollar milestone by 2030. His rationale? Bitcoin’s relative position against gold and its limited reach globally.
“I pretty much believe in two things there: One is, I try to look at the relative market cap to gold. So at its peak, Bitcoin has been at around 12% of gold's market cap, which, in the long term I believe it's way more valuable than gold and easier to transfer,” Ali said.
Secondly, the number of people and institutions accessing bitcoin is still relatively small. While not everyone is jumping on the bitcoin-train, even a fraction of the global market doing so could result in more price discovery, he added. So if distribution grows, so can bitcoin’s price.
Alongside this, another shift Ali sees for bitcoin is cultural: Holders are starting to care about yield as bitcoin’s price swings aren’t as big as they used to be, which makes a 5% yield per year very appealing. That is now driving new financial primitives on bitcoin, especially among institutions.
“Bitcoin is not seeing traction as a general-purpose, programing layer or even NFTs and these other types of use cases,” Ali said. “Bitcoin is seeing traction as pristine collateral. People don't want to sell it.”
Check out the next section for more details and the full episode.
The latest Talking Tokens podcast 🎙️
For today’s episode, I interviewed Muneeb Ali, founder of Stacks, about navigating his fourth bear market and why this one feels different as AI could potentially offer higher growth than crypto for the first time. Muneeb explains why quantum computing poses a real threat to Bitcoin even before quantum computers exist, and why some Bitcoin hardliners refuse to acknowledge the problem.
He walks through the evolution of Bitcoin DeFi from peak excitement in 2024 to maturation in 2025, why BTC yield has product-market fit, and how Stacks is launching self-custodial Bitcoin staking with 3-7% yields. The conversation covers its $400M+ in BTC rewards already paid out, why institutions want Bitcoin-denominated returns and why Bitcoin maturing with yield capabilities will help traditional banks offer it to clients even if hardliners don't like BlackRock's involvement.
TIMESTAMPS
00:00 – Intro
01:24 – How his 4th bear market feels different with AI competing with crypto
04:47 – Quantum computing threat to Bitcoin and why hardliners won't acknowledge it
07:04 – Bitcoin's path to quantum resistance
12:26 – What happens to Satoshi's Bitcoin and lost coins in quantum future
14:44 – Bitcoin to $1M by 2030: conviction despite slower appreciation rates
17:27 – Bitcoin DeFi evolution from 2024 to 2025
21:06 – Bitcoin collateral: yield and lending product-market fit
28:55 – Why institutions want BTC-denominated yields
31:10 – What changed culturally to make Bitcoin staking acceptable to holders
34:55 – Self-custodial Bitcoin staking: earn 3-7% with BTC in your hardware wallet
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Money and people moves
Blockworks’ Head of Research departs for “next thing”
YZi Labs-backed Derivio raised $6M for its “AI-native trading terminal”
Algorand Foundation Cuts 25% of Staff as Crypto Industry Layoffs Grow (Decrypt)
Polymarket acquires the startup Brahma, in effort to scale its crypto and DeFi infrastructure (Fortune)
FTX to distribute another $2.2 billion to creditors starting March 31 (The Block)
Rachit Agarwal joins Wormhole Labs to focus on Sunrise
GSR acquires token advisory firm, Architech, and operating partner Autonomous
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Please note this content is for informational and educational purposes only. Any views shared should not be considered financial advice, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Cryptocurrencies are high risk and you should consult a financial professional before making any financial decisions. Make sure you do your own research. We may have a direct or indirect financial interest in content mentioned in this newsletter.